Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1041 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 1041 TPA 07:05 → EWR 09:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1206 TPA 16:21 → EWR 19:10 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1041 United Flight history →	TPA 07:05	EWR 09:56	5%	2%	12.9%	96%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	TPA 09:00	EWR 11:51	10%	4%	15.6%	85%
UA 2858 United Flight history →	TPA 10:57	EWR 13:48	12%	6%	16.7%	87%
UA 1501 United Flight history →	TPA 17:45	EWR 20:36	31%	13%	17.3%	49%
UA 1206 United Flight history →	TPA 16:21	EWR 19:10	34%	14%	17.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON