Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 1906 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–35%.

Safest bet that day B6 1906 TPA 07:38 → FLL 08:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4022 TPA 16:30 → FLL 17:35 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1906 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 07:38	FLL 08:43	11%	5%	16.0%	91%
B6 2076 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 17:36	FLL 18:42	34%	16%	17.9%	72%
WN 4022 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 16:30	FLL 17:35	35%	14%	17.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON