Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4023 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 4023 TPA 05:30 → HOU 06:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 4025 TPA 20:40 → HOU 21:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4023 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 05:30	HOU 06:45	4%	1%	16.2%	95%
WN 4468 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 12:40	HOU 14:00	24%	5%	17.6%	65%
WN 4025 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 20:40	HOU 21:55	31%	10%	11.9%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON