tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 548 at 17:16, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 548 JetBlue Flight history → TPA 17:16 HPN 20:09 24% 11% 17.3% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → HPN 12:08DL 2044 6h 53m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:44 → ORD 08:49AA 354 3h 52m Chicago ORD 12:41 → HPN 15:59AA 4200 · flown by Envoy 9h 15m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07AA 2538 1h 59m Charlotte CLT 11:06 → HPN 13:13AA 5180 · flown by PSA 5h 58m 97% 69%
DeltaDetails → TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 19:59 → HPN 22:25DL 1616 7h 07m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → TPA 13:49 → ORD 15:59AA 2834 3h 40m Chicago ORD 19:39 → HPN 22:59AA 3752 · flown by Envoy 9h 10m 97% 68%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 12:46 → HPN 16:30DL 4680 · flown by Endeavor 8h 45m 100% 67%
AmericanDetails → TPA 10:12 → CLT 12:00AA 3320 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 14:49 → HPN 16:56AA 5606 · flown by PSA 6h 44m 98% 63%
AmericanDetails → TPA 13:54 → CLT 15:51AA 2836 2h 29m Charlotte CLT 18:20 → HPN 20:29AA 5016 · flown by PSA 6h 35m 99% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → TPA 17:36 → FLL 18:42B6 2076 1h 13m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:55 → HPN 22:59B6 914 5h 23m 69% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON