Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2331 TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1370 TPA 18:57 → IAD 21:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2331 United Flight history →	TPA 09:00	IAD 11:22	8%	3%	16.6%	94%
UA 1576 United Flight history →	TPA 14:00	IAD 16:22	12%	6%	17.1%	85%
F9 2954 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 09:10	IAD 11:43	13%	6%	17.4%	85%
UA 1370 United Flight history →	TPA 18:57	IAD 21:30	15%	8%	17.1%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON