Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2491 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2491 TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1834 TPA 17:25 → IAH 18:52 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2491 United Flight history →	TPA 07:15	IAH 08:42	8%	3%	14.9%	94%
UA 2319 United Flight history →	TPA 09:15	IAH 10:42	10%	3%	16.6%	91%
UA 2421 United Flight history →	TPA 11:55	IAH 13:22	11%	4%	17.2%	89%
UA 1834 United Flight history →	TPA 17:25	IAH 18:52	20%	8%	17.3%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON