tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 331 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 331 Southwest Flight history → TPA 06:10 IND 08:25 3% 1% 15.4% 100%
WN 3023 Southwest Flight history → TPA 20:55 IND 23:20 27% 11% 11.6% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → IND 10:33DL 2952 5h 18m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 07:25 → BNA 08:20WN 4002 1h 45m Nashville BNA 10:05 → IND 12:20WN 537 4h 55m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013 6h 21m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:05 → EWR 09:56UA 1041 1h 58m Newark EWR 11:54 → IND 14:07UA 3446 · flown by Republic 7h 02m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 7h 48m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:50 → ORD 10:00UA 2804 2h 47m Chicago ORD 12:47 → IND 15:03UA 3702 · flown by Republic 7h 13m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:20 → MDW 07:00WN 4031 3h 00m Chicago MDW 10:00 → IND 12:05WN 3877 6h 45m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 2h 52m Detroit DTW 14:00 → IND 15:17DL 5846 · flown by Republic 6h 47m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:10 → LGA 13:54DL 2531 49m New York LGA 14:43 → IND 17:13DL 5646 · flown by Republic 6h 03m 70% 50%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:56 → DFW 19:50AA 2813 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → IND 23:58AA 766 6h 02m 75% 42%
FrontierDetails → TPA 12:39 → DEN 14:44F9 1113 51m Denver DEN 15:35 → IND 20:08F9 2348 7h 29m 72% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON