Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, F9 3324 at 16:09, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 3324 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 16:09	ISP 19:01	28%	14%	17.3%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Islip on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TPA 07:20 → BWI 09:45WN 2701	55m Baltimore	BWI 10:40 → ISP 11:50WN 4691	4h 30m	95%	75%
Southwest Details →	TPA 09:05 → BWI 11:25WN 4009	1h 55m Baltimore	BWI 13:20 → ISP 14:30WN 966	5h 25m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	TPA 10:40 → BWI 13:00WN 1016	3h 05m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → ISP 17:15WN 4126	6h 35m	97%	65%
Southwest Details →	TPA 18:45 → BWI 21:15WN 928	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 22:25 → ISP 23:40WN 4321	4h 55m	77%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON