Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2475 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2475 TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 26 TPA 19:08 → JFK 22:00 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2475 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:05	JFK 09:51	5%	2%	15.6%	94%
B6 126 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 06:13	JFK 09:00	7%	3%	15.1%	82%
DL 884 Delta	TPA 11:10	JFK 13:58	13%	5%	17.3%	no record
B6 626 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 09:15	JFK 12:01	14%	5%	17.4%	91%
DL 2095 Delta Flight history →	TPA 19:59	JFK 23:03	25%	10%	17.3%	45%
B6 226 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 15:43	JFK 18:33	27%	11%	17.3%	69%
B6 26 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 19:08	JFK 22:00	32%	16%	17.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON