Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4326 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4326 TPA 06:40 → LAS 08:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 660 TPA 19:35 → LAS 21:15 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4326 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 06:40	LAS 08:15	6%	1%	13.1%	88%
WN 1809 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:30	LAS 12:10	20%	4%	17.1%	84%
F9 1257 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 22:40	LAS 00:19	35%	17%	13.9%	79%worse than usual
WN 660 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 19:35	LAS 21:15	35%	11%	17.1%	42%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:00 → DEN 06:40WN 4018	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559	6h 35m	96%	76%
Southwest Details →	TPA 06:05 → DAL 07:35WN 1406	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 08:45 → LAS 09:35WN 695	6h 30m	95%	73%
American Details →	TPA 05:45 → DFW 07:36AA 2268	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → LAS 09:16AA 1584	6h 31m	89%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON