Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 538 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 538 TPA 07:31 → LAX 09:24 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 749 TPA 19:15 → LAX 21:17 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 538 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:31	LAX 09:24	12%	4%	12.9%	89%
WN 4882 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 13:20	LAX 15:20	21%	6%	17.1%	74%
DL 749 Delta Flight history →	TPA 19:15	LAX 21:17	24%	7%	17.3%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048	1h 00m St Louis	STL 08:10 → LAX 10:05WN 3937	7h 15m	96%	72%
United Details →	TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491	1h 11m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 15m	93%	69%
American Details →	TPA 08:01 → PHX 09:27AA 3333	1h 09m Phoenix	PHX 10:36 → LAX 12:06AA 2869	7h 05m	95%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON