Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2859 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2859 TPA 06:12 → LGA 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2106 TPA 16:25 → LGA 19:26 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2859 American Flight history →	TPA 06:12	LGA 09:00	7%	2%	15.1%	90%
DL 2723 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	LGA 10:15	9%	3%	15.6%	88%
DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:10	LGA 13:54	14%	4%	17.3%	90%
AA 2805 American Flight history →	TPA 12:11	LGA 15:00	21%	6%	17.3%	73%
DL 2195 Delta Flight history →	TPA 14:45	LGA 17:44	25%	9%	17.4%	70%
DL 2454 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:44	LGA 21:59	25%	12%	17.4%	70%
DL 2106 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:25	LGA 19:26	26%	12%	17.3%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON