tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4963 at 05:40, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4963 Southwest Flight history → TPA 05:40 MCI 07:25 3% 1% 14.8% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048 1h 00m St Louis STL 08:10 → MCI 09:15WN 3943 4h 25m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471 5h 23m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:00 → DEN 06:40WN 4018 2h 00m Denver DEN 08:40 → MCI 11:15WN 1584 7h 15m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:20 → MDW 07:00WN 4031 1h 00m Chicago MDW 08:00 → MCI 09:30WN 2808 5h 10m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → MCI 11:16DL 2908 6h 01m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:50 → ORD 10:00UA 2804 2h 40m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 30m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:45 → SLC 09:13DL 1977 1h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 8h 12m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 8h 29m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:29 → PHL 19:14AA 2838 51m Philadelphia PHL 20:05 → MCI 22:24AA 2901 6h 55m 67% 44%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 20:40 → HOU 21:55WN 4025 1h 00m Houston HOU 22:55 → MCI 00:55 +1WN 2030 5h 15m 69% 44%
AmericanDetails → TPA 19:32 → MIA 20:37AA 3555 · flown by Envoy 1h 08m Miami MIA 21:45 → MCI 23:59AA 670 5h 27m 69% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON