Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3215 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 3215 TPA 06:00 → MIA 07:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3555 TPA 19:32 → MIA 20:37 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3215 American Flight history →	TPA 06:00	MIA 07:10	7%	2%	12.0%	94%
AA 1740 American Flight history →	TPA 07:00	MIA 08:10	7%	3%	13.5%	95%
AA 2737 American Flight history →	TPA 08:00	MIA 09:12	10%	4%	15.8%	88%
AA 2778 American Flight history →	TPA 09:00	MIA 10:13	15%	6%	17.0%	82%
AA 2781 American Flight history →	TPA 09:53	MIA 11:06	17%	6%	17.0%	79%
AA 2831 American Flight history →	TPA 13:54	MIA 15:03	31%	13%	19.6%	61%
AA 2987 American Flight history →	TPA 17:33	MIA 18:45	39%	17%	17.9%	46%
AA 3555 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TPA 19:32	MIA 20:37	41%	15%	18.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON