Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 934 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 934 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 07:55	MSY 08:35	7%	2%	15.5%	94%
WN 4038 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 17:10	MSY 17:45	34%	13%	18.1%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:58 → MSY 09:29DL 1424	5h 14m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 22m	99%	79%
Southwest Details →	TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048	1h 05m St Louis	STL 08:15 → MSY 10:00WN 4780	5h 10m	96%	78%
Southwest Details →	TPA 05:20 → MDW 07:00WN 4031	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 08:50 → MSY 11:05WN 2834	6h 45m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	TPA 05:00 → DEN 06:40WN 4018	1h 20m Denver	DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45WN 1642	7h 45m	98%	77%
Southwest Details →	TPA 05:45 → AUS 07:10WN 3998	3h 40m Austin	AUS 10:50 → MSY 12:15WN 366	7h 30m	100%	74%
American Details →	TPA 06:00 → MIA 07:10AA 3215	50m Miami	MIA 08:00 → MSY 09:18AA 2168	4h 18m	92%	72%
Southwest Details →	TPA 05:30 → HOU 06:45WN 4023	1h 05m Houston	HOU 07:50 → MSY 09:00WN 1796	4h 30m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	TPA 15:55 → DCA 18:20WN 324	50m Washington	DCA 19:10 → MSY 20:50WN 1453	5h 55m	67%	36%
American Details →	TPA 17:33 → MIA 18:45AA 2987	1h 30m Miami	MIA 20:15 → MSY 21:21AA 2196	4h 48m	68%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON