Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2804 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2804 TPA 07:50 → ORD 10:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2768 TPA 18:30 → ORD 21:01 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2804 United Flight history →	TPA 07:50	ORD 10:00	7%	3%	13.1%	97%
AA 354 American Flight history →	TPA 06:44	ORD 08:49	7%	2%	12.0%	92%
UA 2223 United Flight history →	TPA 12:30	ORD 14:40	11%	5%	17.1%	85%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	TPA 13:49	ORD 15:59	17%	8%	17.3%	67%
UA 2801 United Flight history →	TPA 19:42	ORD 21:53	18%	9%	17.1%	64%
UA 1010 United Flight history →	TPA 16:30	ORD 18:40	20%	8%	17.1%	61%
AA 2768 American Flight history →	TPA 18:30	ORD 21:01	23%	10%	17.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON