Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1806 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1806 TPA 06:01 → PHL 08:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 2836 TPA 22:30 → PHL 01:09 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1806 American Flight history →	TPA 06:01	PHL 08:39	4%	2%	11.8%	97%
AA 2807 American Flight history →	TPA 10:59	PHL 13:38	14%	5%	17.2%	90%
AA 2822 American Flight history →	TPA 12:33	PHL 15:17	18%	6%	17.2%	76%
F9 2538 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 12:50	PHL 15:35	23%	11%	17.3%	68%
AA 2838 American Flight history →	TPA 16:29	PHL 19:14	27%	11%	17.3%	55%
AA 2900 American Flight history →	TPA 17:56	PHL 20:40	27%	11%	17.3%	49%
F9 2836 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 22:30	PHL 01:09	29%	15%	15.2%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON