Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3333 at 08:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3333 TPA 08:01 → PHX 09:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2329 TPA 18:31 → PHX 19:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3333 American Flight history →	TPA 08:01	PHX 09:27	11%	3%	16.6%	92%
WN 4040 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 11:40	PHX 13:00	18%	4%	17.1%	81%
AA 2329 American Flight history →	TPA 18:31	PHX 19:54	24%	10%	17.3%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 06:05 → DAL 07:35WN 1406	1h 15m Dallas	DAL 08:50 → PHX 09:20WN 4410	6h 15m	95%	72%
United Details →	TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491	58m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	6h 19m	91%	68%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744	55m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	6h 18m	89%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON