Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4041 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4041 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 07:00	PIT 09:25	4%	2%	14.9%	92%
WN 1416 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 20:15	PIT 22:40	27%	12%	11.1%	39%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048	2h 55m St Louis	STL 10:05 → PIT 12:40WN 3971	6h 50m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → PIT 10:45DL 1363	5h 30m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	6h 37m	99%	78%
United Details →	TPA 07:50 → ORD 10:00UA 2804	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic	7h 33m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	TPA 07:25 → BNA 08:20WN 4002	1h 40m Nashville	BNA 10:00 → PIT 12:30WN 1489	5h 05m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406	1h 36m Boston	BOS 11:45 → PIT 13:41DL 5731 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353	7h 05m	98%	74%
American Details →	TPA 06:44 → ORD 08:49AA 354	56m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → PIT 12:31AA 4484 · flown by Republic	5h 47m	91%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TPA 17:45 → EWR 20:36UA 1501	1h 14m Newark	EWR 21:50 → PIT 23:23UA 3477 · flown by Republic	5h 38m	71%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON