tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1638 Alaska Flight history → TPA 17:32 SAN 19:24 34% 7% 17.3% 76%worse than usual
WN 133 Southwest Flight history → TPA 19:00 SAN 20:55 42% 11% 17.1% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26DL 725 7h 11m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 53m 99% 73%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:00 → DEN 06:40WN 4018 1h 35m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 7h 40m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 39m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:45 → SLC 09:13DL 1977 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 8h 23m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:50 → ORD 10:00UA 2804 3h 00m Chicago ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683 10h 35m 100% 71%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:45 → AUS 07:10WN 3998 2h 55m Austin AUS 10:05 → SAN 10:55WN 1435 8h 10m 100% 70%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048 1h 00m St Louis STL 08:10 → SAN 09:50WN 4283 7h 00m 96% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → TPA 12:18 → BOS 15:27B6 392 53m Boston BOS 16:20 → SAN 19:27B6 319 10h 09m 73% 40%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:33 → MIA 18:45AA 2987 1h 27m Miami MIA 20:12 → SAN 22:38AA 2463 8h 05m 68% 34%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 19:35 → LAS 21:15WN 660 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → SAN 23:30WN 2871 6h 55m 65% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON