tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4045 at 13:30, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4045 Southwest Flight history → TPA 13:30 SAT 15:05 19% 5% 17.1% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048 1h 00m St Louis STL 08:10 → SAT 10:15WN 3978 5h 25m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676 5h 28m 97% 79%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:20 → MDW 07:00WN 4031 3h 35m Chicago MDW 10:35 → SAT 13:15WN 2570 8h 55m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:00 → DEN 06:40WN 4018 1h 00m Denver DEN 07:40 → SAT 10:50WN 2664 6h 50m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → SAT 11:09DL 1121 5h 54m 97% 76%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:30 → HOU 06:45WN 4023 2h 40m Houston HOU 09:25 → SAT 10:25WN 1432 5h 55m 100% 76%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 06:05 → DAL 07:35WN 1406 2h 15m Dallas DAL 09:50 → SAT 10:55WN 2617 5h 50m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 08m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:32 → ATL 18:23DL 1167 46m Atlanta ATL 19:09 → SAT 20:37DL 2893 5h 05m 66% 42%
AmericanDetails → TPA 19:32 → MIA 20:37AA 3555 · flown by Envoy 1h 15m Miami MIA 21:52 → SAT 23:59AA 1468 5h 27m 74% 38%
FrontierDetails → TPA 12:39 → DEN 14:44F9 1113 46m Denver DEN 15:30 → SAT 18:44F9 2356 7h 05m 64% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON