Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4466 at 09:20, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4466 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 09:20	SDF 11:25	15%	3%	17.1%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	6h 36m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → SDF 10:29DL 1374	4h 14m	96%	78%
Southwest Details →	TPA 07:25 → BNA 08:20WN 4002	1h 45m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → SDF 12:00WN 670	4h 35m	99%	74%
Southwest Details →	TPA 08:00 → MDW 09:40WN 2869	3h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473	6h 55m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	TPA 07:20 → BWI 09:45WN 2701	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → SDF 12:30WN 1297	5h 10m	95%	74%
American Details →	TPA 05:45 → DFW 07:36AA 2268	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	7h 03m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	5h 42m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:00 → DTW 16:48DL 2587	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic	7h 12m	98%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 17:56 → DFW 19:50AA 2813	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:36 → SDF 23:46AA 1365	5h 50m	71%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON