tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 611 United Flight history → TPA 06:29 SFO 09:06 7% 2% 11.7% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 8h 05m 97% 73%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 06:13 → JFK 09:00B6 126 1h 30m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 55m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 3h 29m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 38m 100% 69%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048 1h 05m St Louis STL 08:15 → SFO 10:20WN 3982 7h 30m 96% 68%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 10h 20m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 58m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 24m 92% 68%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 18m 97% 67%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:05 → JFK 09:51DL 2475 1h 24m New York JFK 11:15 → SFO 14:33DL 363 10h 28m 96% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 20:02 → ATL 21:49DL 1594 51m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 7h 34m 72% 47%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:56 → DFW 19:50AA 2813 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → SFO 22:28AA 2228 7h 32m 75% 36%
JetBlueDetails → TPA 16:58 → BOS 20:07B6 592 48m Boston BOS 20:55 → SFO 00:30 +1B6 413 10h 32m 55% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON