Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 343 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 343 TPA 06:35 → SJU 09:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 2216 TPA 21:35 → SJU 00:41 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 343 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 06:35	SJU 09:30	4%	1%	12.8%	88%
B6 1751 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 10:10	SJU 13:09	20%	7%	17.3%	73%
B6 2851 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 14:19	SJU 17:23	27%	10%	17.3%	71%
WN 4047 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 20:35	SJU 23:40	28%	11%	11.3%	24%
B6 751 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 21:10	SJU 00:14	30%	15%	13.1%	65%
F9 2216 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 21:35	SJU 00:41	33%	15%	13.3%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON