tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1977 Delta Flight history → TPA 06:45 SLC 09:13 7% 3% 11.6% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 8h 34m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 6h 59m 97% 79%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:00 → DEN 06:40WN 4018 1h 05m Denver DEN 07:45 → SLC 09:20WN 452 6h 20m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 55m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:45 → AUS 07:10WN 3998 2h 05m Austin AUS 09:15 → SLC 11:00WN 403 7h 15m 100% 77%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:20 → MDW 07:00WN 4031 3h 00m Chicago MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25WN 2951 9h 05m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 20m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:00 → MIA 07:10AA 3215 2h 40m Miami MIA 09:50 → SLC 12:40AA 483 8h 40m 98% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON