tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 406 at 14:05, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 406 Southwest Flight history → TUL 14:05 AUS 15:30 18% 5% 0.5% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 4814 55m Dallas DAL 07:35 → AUS 08:40WN 1265 3h 05m 98% 91%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:35 → PHX 07:05WN 4287 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 08:25 → AUS 12:45WN 4744 6h 10m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → AUS 11:15UA 456 5h 15m 94% 86%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 07:40 → BNA 09:20WN 4051 2h 10m Nashville BNA 11:30 → AUS 13:40WN 450 6h 00m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 25m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 5h 38m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → TUL 05:00 → DFW 06:17AA 3988 · flown by Envoy 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:41 → AUS 08:52AA 4992 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 19m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 6h 12m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 13:41 → IAH 15:29UA 5637 · flown by SkyWest 51m Houston IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27UA 1711 3h 46m 74% 55%
AmericanDetails → TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:04 → AUS 19:16AA 5574 · flown by PSA 3h 27m 64% 45%
AmericanDetails → TUL 20:26 → DFW 21:49AA 2889 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588 3h 25m 66% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON