tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4051 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4051 Southwest Flight history → TUL 07:40 BNA 09:20 4% 1% 0.5% 95%
WN 2374 Southwest Flight history → TUL 16:20 BNA 17:55 22% 6% 0.5% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 4814 1h 40m Dallas DAL 08:20 → BNA 10:10WN 434 4h 35m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 30m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605 5h 42m 94% 88%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:15 → ORD 09:17UA 2653 3h 12m Chicago ORD 12:29 → BNA 14:14UA 3634 · flown by Republic 6h 59m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → BNA 14:02UA 1318 7h 02m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 57m Houston IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47UA 2174 4h 47m 93% 85%
AmericanDetails → TUL 05:00 → DFW 06:17AA 3988 · flown by Envoy 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:25 → BNA 09:26AA 3397 · flown by Envoy 4h 26m 96% 85%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 06:50WN 1676 3h 10m Denver DEN 10:00 → BNA 13:40WN 1485 7h 40m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 13:41 → IAH 15:29UA 5637 · flown by SkyWest 51m Houston IAH 16:20 → BNA 18:27UA 2165 4h 46m 74% 59%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 16:05 → MDW 17:50WN 2717 50m Chicago MDW 18:40 → BNA 20:10WN 1073 4h 05m 73% 53%
AmericanDetails → TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076 4h 28m 75% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON