Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1729 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1729 American Flight history →	TUL 07:00	CLT 10:30	12%	4%	0.6%	92%
AA 2853 American Flight history →	TUL 13:51	CLT 17:25	23%	7%	0.6%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TUL 05:00 → MDW 06:45WN 4057	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 07:50 → CLT 10:55WN 2749	4h 55m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 26m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 10m	98%	83%
American Details →	TUL 05:00 → DFW 06:17AA 3988 · flown by Envoy	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:30 → CLT 12:10AA 1690	6h 10m	98%	82%
American Details →	TUL 06:00 → LGA 10:14AA 4581 · flown by Republic	1h 56m New York	LGA 12:10 → CLT 14:14AA 1150	7h 14m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	7h 15m	100%	81%
American Details →	TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy	3h 12m Chicago	ORD 12:00 → CLT 15:08AA 2681	7h 33m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	7h 52m	95%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TUL 15:43 → IAH 17:24UA 5301 · flown by SkyWest	48m Houston	IAH 18:12 → CLT 21:59UA 2864	5h 16m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON