tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5423 at 16:17, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5423 American flown by PSA Flight history → TUL 16:17 DCA 20:11 27% 13% 1.8% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:00 → MDW 06:45WN 4057 1h 30m Chicago MDW 08:15 → DCA 11:10WN 2569 5h 10m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48AA 3590 · flown by Envoy 1h 57m Chicago ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic 6h 24m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 03m Houston IAH 07:46 → DCA 11:56UA 2047 5h 56m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 7h 59m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → TUL 05:00 → DFW 06:17AA 3988 · flown by Envoy 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 42m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 8h 03m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737 5h 42m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 07:40 → BNA 09:20WN 4051 1h 55m Nashville BNA 11:15 → DCA 14:00WN 4562 5h 20m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON