Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1676 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1676 TUL 06:00 → DEN 06:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 5914 TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1676 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 06:00	DEN 06:50	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
UA 5667 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 06:00	DEN 07:00	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 690 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 10:20	DEN 11:00	10%	2%	0.6%	77%
UA 5276 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 11:44	DEN 12:44	13%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 1029 United Flight history →	TUL 09:22	DEN 10:10	15%	3%	0.7%	76%
UA 6032 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 19:05	DEN 20:22	22%	6%	0.6%	72%
WN 4333 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 18:40	DEN 19:30	28%	6%	0.6%	41%
UA 5914 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 17:10	DEN 18:10	29%	7%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON