Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3988 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3988 TUL 05:00 → DFW 06:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2889 TUL 20:26 → DFW 21:49 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3988 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 05:00	DFW 06:17	6%	3%	1.2%	89%
AA 867 American Flight history →	TUL 06:01	DFW 07:25	9%	5%	1.5%	89%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 12:49	DFW 14:13	11%	3%	1.1%	83%
AA 3095 American Flight history →	TUL 07:47	DFW 09:12	16%	6%	1.2%	75%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	TUL 10:54	DFW 12:16	17%	7%	1.1%	70%
AA 4133 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 18:33	DFW 19:58	19%	5%	1.5%	75%
AA 5420 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TUL 15:49	DFW 17:13	28%	11%	1.7%	66%
AA 2889 American Flight history →	TUL 20:26	DFW 21:49	34%	10%	1.4%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON