tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 680 at 12:25, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 680 Southwest Flight history → TUL 12:25 HOU 14:05 14% 3% 1.3% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 4814 1h 50m Dallas DAL 08:30 → HOU 09:45WN 7 4h 10m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:35 → PHX 07:05WN 4287 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 08:05 → HOU 12:40WN 2833 6h 05m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195 6h 10m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 07:40 → BNA 09:20WN 4051 2h 20m Nashville BNA 11:40 → HOU 13:40WN 5055 6h 00m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 6h 18m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → TUL 05:00 → DFW 06:17AA 3988 · flown by Envoy 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → HOU 09:48AA 5071 · flown by PSA 4h 48m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:01 → DFW 07:25AA 867 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 10:10 → DAL 11:15WN 4053 2h 15m Dallas DAL 13:30 → HOU 14:45WN 29 4h 35m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → TUL 18:40 → DEN 19:30WN 4333 55m Denver DEN 20:25 → HOU 23:55WN 2026 5h 15m 67% 48%
AmericanDetails → TUL 20:26 → DFW 21:49AA 2889 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 3h 30m 59% 44%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 17:20 → MCO 21:10WN 2091 1h 10m Orlando MCO 22:20 → HOU 23:50WN 2645 6h 30m 75% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON