Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5637 TUL 13:41 → IAH 15:29 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5301 TUL 15:43 → IAH 17:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5637 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 13:41	IAH 15:29	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 5301 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 15:43	IAH 17:24	20%	7%	0.7%	64%
UA 4041 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 05:00	IAH 06:43	6%	1%	0.0%	94%
UA 3984 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 07:00	IAH 08:46	9%	3%	0.0%	91%
UA 4007 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 09:00	IAH 10:47	12%	4%	0.0%	88%
UA 4290 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 16:59	IAH 18:54	15%	5%	1.8%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON