Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2720 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 2720 TUL 07:20 → LAS 08:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest G4 90 TUL 17:57 → LAS 18:46 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2720 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 07:20	LAS 08:05	6%	2%	0.5%	96%
WN 4056 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 20:35	LAS 21:30	29%	9%	0.6%	50%
G4 90 Allegiant Flight history →	TUL 17:57	LAS 18:46	35%	14%	1.1%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON