tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6366 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUL 15:21 LAX 16:55 12% 5% 0.6% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 3h 10m Houston IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469 8h 30m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 7h 34m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 47m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 06m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 06:50WN 1676 1h 00m Denver DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568 5h 20m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 9h 05m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 8h 13m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 6h 27m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:22 → DEN 10:10UA 1029 3h 16m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 7h 35m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 18:20 → ORD 20:30UA 4483 · flown by GoJet 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661 7h 49m 71% 52%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 20:35 → LAS 21:30WN 4056 55m Las Vegas LAS 22:25 → LAX 23:45WN 1056 5h 10m 70% 40%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 18:40 → DAL 19:45WN 4054 55m Dallas DAL 20:40 → LAX 21:50WN 1329 5h 10m 67% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON