Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4581 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4581 TUL 06:00 → LGA 10:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 4619 TUL 14:04 → LGA 18:19 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4581 American flown by Republic Flight history →	TUL 06:00	LGA 10:14	6%	3%	1.2%	87%
AA 4619 American flown by Republic Flight history →	TUL 14:04	LGA 18:19	24%	8%	1.5%	64%
DL 4631 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 07:00	LGA 11:11	32%	20%	4.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON