tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2091 at 17:20, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2091 Southwest Flight history → TUL 17:20 MCO 21:10 30% 10% 17.2% 54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:00 → MDW 06:45WN 4057 1h 15m Chicago MDW 08:00 → MCO 11:35WN 2817 5h 35m 100% 75%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 4814 2h 30m Dallas DAL 09:10 → MCO 12:50WN 1725 6h 15m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 2h 47m Houston IAH 09:30 → MCO 13:00UA 2310 7h 00m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Denver DEN 08:10 → MCO 13:57UA 2292 6h 57m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664 5h 00m 96% 70%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 07:40 → BNA 09:20WN 4051 55m Nashville BNA 10:15 → MCO 13:10WN 568 4h 30m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 39m Houston IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662 8h 04m 99% 67%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:15 → ORD 09:17UA 2653 3h 28m Chicago ORD 12:45 → MCO 16:43UA 1811 8h 28m 97% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:20AA 2186 5h 31m 75% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON