Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4057 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4057 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 05:00	MDW 06:45	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 2717 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 16:05	MDW 17:50	19%	5%	0.6%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TUL 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 4814	1h 50m Dallas	DAL 08:30 → MDW 10:45WN 1356	5h 10m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 06:50WN 1676	3h 10m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	7h 25m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	TUL 07:40 → BNA 09:20WN 4051	1h 25m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	4h 40m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	5h 56m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 11m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	TUL 10:20 → DEN 11:00WN 690	2h 00m Denver	DEN 13:00 → MDW 16:20WN 1601	6h 00m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	TUL 10:10 → DAL 11:15WN 4053	2h 50m Dallas	DAL 14:05 → MDW 16:20WN 1358	6h 10m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	TUL 16:20 → BNA 17:55WN 2374	2h 30m Nashville	BNA 20:25 → MDW 22:00WN 4286	5h 40m	100%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON