Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3367 at 05:50, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3367 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 05:50	MIA 09:57	9%	4%	1.7%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TUL 05:00 → MDW 06:45WN 4057	1h 15m Chicago	MDW 08:00 → MIA 12:00WN 2464	6h 00m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 02m	98%	77%
Southwest Details →	TUL 07:40 → BNA 09:20WN 4051	2h 10m Nashville	BNA 11:30 → MIA 14:50WN 581	6h 10m	100%	73%
American Details →	TUL 05:00 → DFW 06:17AA 3988 · flown by Envoy	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → MIA 11:11AA 3290	5h 11m	93%	73%
United Details →	TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa	3h 14m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 47m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 07m	99%	72%
American Details →	TUL 07:00 → CLT 10:30AA 1729	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 13:30 → MIA 15:38AA 2912	7h 38m	96%	70%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Denver	DEN 10:09 → MIA 16:16UA 1496	9h 16m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:10 → MIA 22:05AA 2206	5h 16m	70%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON