Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3590 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3590 TUL 06:35 → ORD 08:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 4795 TUL 14:17 → ORD 16:28 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3590 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 06:35	ORD 08:48	10%	4%	1.3%	85%
UA 2653 United Flight history →	TUL 07:15	ORD 09:17	12%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 5717 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 09:50	ORD 12:00	13%	6%	0.9%	93%
AA 4135 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 12:19	ORD 14:24	18%	4%	1.4%	80%
AA 3827 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 19:49	ORD 22:00	23%	7%	2.1%	74%
UA 4795 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 14:17	ORD 16:28	26%	9%	0.9%	69%
UA 4483 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	TUL 18:20	ORD 20:30	29%	10%	5.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON