Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4287 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4287 TUL 06:35 → PHX 07:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 3826 TUL 18:02 → PHX 18:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4287 Southwest Flight history →	TUL 06:35	PHX 07:05	4%	1%	0.5%	77%
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 08:52	PHX 09:32	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 3826 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUL 18:02	PHX 18:40	19%	5%	0.8%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON