tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:35, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2320 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record TUL 15:07 SAN 16:15 51% 10% 1.9% 49%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:35 → DAL 06:40WN 4814 1h 10m Dallas DAL 07:50 → SAN 08:50WN 192 5h 15m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 06:50WN 1676 1h 25m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 5h 40m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 2h 47m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 51m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 08m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → TUL 07:00 → IAH 08:46UA 3984 · flown by Mesa 3h 14m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 21m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 6h 08m 96% 78%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:35 → PHX 07:05WN 4287 50m Phoenix PHX 07:55 → SAN 09:10WN 2771 4h 35m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:36 → SAN 17:00DL 843 8h 56m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 15:49 → DFW 17:13AA 5420 · flown by PSA 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:15 → SAN 19:20AA 3195 5h 31m 73% 43%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 18:40 → DAL 19:45WN 4054 1h 05m Dallas DAL 20:50 → SAN 21:50WN 1395 5h 10m 72% 43%
AmericanDetails → TUL 20:26 → DFW 21:49AA 2889 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 5h 33m 68% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON