tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2220 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record TUL 18:09 SEA 20:17 27% 10% 0.0% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648 9h 35m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → TUL 08:52 → PHX 09:32AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 2h 00m Phoenix PHX 11:32 → SEA 14:46AA 3440 · flown by Envoy 7h 54m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 1h 17m Houston IAH 08:00 → SEA 10:47UA 2654 7h 47m 97% 81%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 06:50WN 1676 55m Denver DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713 5h 45m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 6h 49m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 8h 45m 98% 79%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:00 → MDW 06:45WN 4057 3h 55m Chicago MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340 10h 10m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:35 → PHX 07:05WN 4287 3h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → SEA 13:50WN 814 9h 15m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 19:10 → SEA 21:10UA 360 6h 00m 71% 47%
AlaskaDetails → TUL 15:07 → SAN 16:15AS 2320 · flown by Horizon 1h 20m San Diego SAN 17:35 → SEA 20:35AS 417 7h 28m 69% 40%
AmericanDetails → TUL 20:26 → DFW 21:49AA 2889 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 6h 31m 61% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON