tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4006 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUL 08:00 SLC 09:55 5% 3% 0.6% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 06:50WN 1676 55m Denver DEN 07:45 → SLC 09:20WN 452 4h 20m 96% 90%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 05:00 → MDW 06:45WN 4057 3h 15m Chicago MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25WN 2951 8h 25m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → TUL 05:00 → IAH 06:43UA 4041 · flown by Mesa 3h 02m Houston IAH 09:45 → SLC 11:59UA 756 7h 59m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → SLC 09:37UA 497 4h 37m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 10m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → TUL 09:22 → DEN 10:10UA 1029 1h 30m Denver DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963 4h 51m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Denver DEN 16:29 → SLC 18:10UA 5261 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 8h 14m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUL 20:26 → DFW 21:49AA 2889 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 +1AA 2378 5h 10m 67% 43%
SouthwestDetails → TUL 18:40 → DAL 19:45WN 4054 55m Dallas DAL 20:40 → SLC 22:20WN 4633 4h 40m 67% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON