tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via DFW, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 886 Delta Flight history → TUS 06:00 ATL 12:38 5% 2% 0.7% 97%
DL 937 Delta Flight history → TUS 13:49 ATL 20:45 12% 4% 0.7% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUS 05:45 → DEN 08:38UA 2418 1h 22m Denver DEN 10:00 → ATL 15:09UA 2424 6h 24m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 9h 17m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905 9h 42m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUS 12:30 → LAX 14:15DL 3744 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Los Angeles LAX 16:40 → ATL 00:30 +1DL 471 9h 00m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m Los Angeles LAX 12:00 → ATL 19:39DL 446 10h 19m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → TUS 06:37 → IAH 11:13UA 4042 · flown by Mesa 3h 27m Houston IAH 14:40 → ATL 17:54UA 1211 8h 17m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → TUS 05:45 → PHX 06:36AA 2622 2h 30m Phoenix PHX 09:06 → ATL 15:55AA 1373 7h 10m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27AA 2193 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:58 → ATL 14:10AA 1386 6h 09m 96% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → TUS 15:15 → DEN 18:15WN 1599 50m Denver DEN 19:05 → ATL 00:10 +1WN 1472 5h 55m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON