Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4059 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 4059 TUS 06:10 → DEN 09:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1599 TUS 15:15 → DEN 18:15 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4059 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 06:10	DEN 09:00	3%	1%	0.5%	96%
UA 2418 United Flight history →	TUS 05:45	DEN 08:38	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 519 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 09:35	DEN 12:25	10%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 2671 United Flight history →	TUS 13:30	DEN 16:39	20%	5%	0.6%	81%
WN 1599 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 15:15	DEN 18:15	29%	8%	0.5%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON