Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2193 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2193 TUS 05:01 → DFW 09:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 584 TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2193 American Flight history →	TUS 05:01	DFW 09:27	6%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 1025 American Flight history →	TUS 07:00	DFW 11:24	8%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 1014 American Flight history →	TUS 09:30	DFW 13:52	15%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 2926 American Flight history →	TUS 13:18	DFW 17:50	21%	9%	0.8%	72%
AA 584 American Flight history →	TUS 15:57	DFW 20:29	23%	11%	1.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON