tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4042 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record TUS 06:37 IAH 11:13 5% 0% 0.0% 95%
UA 4045 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record TUS 10:55 IAH 15:29 22% 11% 0.0% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TUS 05:45 → DEN 08:38UA 2418 2h 56m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 7h 24m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → TUS 06:28 → ORD 12:15AA 2675 1h 20m Chicago ORD 13:35 → IAH 16:31AA 4426 · flown by Republic 8h 03m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 8h 48m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:30 → DEN 16:39UA 2671 3h 49m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 8h 29m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → TUS 05:45 → PHX 06:36AA 2622 2h 18m Phoenix PHX 08:54 → IAH 13:44AA 2710 5h 59m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → TUS 07:00 → DFW 11:24AA 1025 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:33 → IAH 15:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy 6h 48m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → IAH 15:04DL 1143 6h 44m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → TUS 07:20 → ORD 13:05UA 5266 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Chicago ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451 8h 00m 94% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 4h 36m 70% 48%
UnitedDetails → TUS 09:04 → SFO 11:25UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest 50m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → IAH 18:27UA 1387 7h 23m 51% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON