Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6393 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 6393 TUS 06:02 → LAX 07:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4060 TUS 19:00 → LAX 20:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6393 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:02	LAX 07:46	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 3502 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 06:20	LAX 08:00	12%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 3744 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 12:30	LAX 14:15	12%	4%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 12:34	LAX 14:15	14%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 3778 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 16:47	LAX 18:31	14%	6%	0.6%	94%
AA 6372 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 17:43	LAX 19:25	17%	6%	0.6%	76%
WN 4060 Southwest Flight history →	TUS 19:00	LAX 20:35	32%	8%	0.6%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON