Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2675 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2675 TUS 06:28 → ORD 12:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2867 TUS 12:35 → ORD 18:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2675 American Flight history →	TUS 06:28	ORD 12:15	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 5266 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 07:20	ORD 13:05	13%	7%	0.8%	73%
AA 2867 American Flight history →	TUS 12:35	ORD 18:29	25%	8%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	TUS 05:45 → DEN 08:38UA 2418	57m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	5h 30m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON